KeyData’s Autumn 2026 UK index landed last week, and it tells a story most owners of large holiday houses may recognise from their own calendars. Fewer nights sold over the summer, but at higher rates, with revenue per property holding close to last year’s level. The report draws on short-term rental data up to 6 October 2026 and covers Q3 arrivals, as well as what is already on the books for October to December.
It is a market-wide report rather than one focused on group stays, so I have been careful below to separate what the data say from our take on what they mean for properties sleeping eight or more.
If you want the longer-range view, this sits alongside our earlier pieces on UK holiday house and group accommodation trends for 2026 and what the Staycation Index 2026 means for group travel.
UK Short-Term Rental Performance in Q3 2026: Fewer Nights, Higher Rates
The summer of 2026 was a story of rates doing the heavy lifting. According to KeyData, paid occupancy across the UK softened through the quarter while average daily rate climbed in every month, leaving revenue per available rental close to flat.
Paid Occupancy Fell Across August and September 2026
- July 2026: 51.2%, identical to July 2025, so no change year on year
- August 2026: 55.9%, down from 58.0% in August 2025, a year-on-year fall of 4% (2.1 percentage points)
- September 2026: 49.4%, down from 51.9% in September 2025, a year-on-year fall of 5% (2.5 percentage points)
Average Daily Rates Rose in Every Summer Month
- July 2026: £189, up 4% on £182 in July 2025
- August 2026: £203, up 2% on £199 in August 2025
- September 2026: £140, up 4% on £135 in September 2025
RevPAR Stayed Broadly Flat Year on Year
- July 2026: £97, up 4% on £93 in July 2025
- August 2026: £113, down 2% on £115 in August 2025
- September 2026: £69, down 1% on £70 in September 2025
KeyData’s own demand index, which tracks year-on-year reservations per property, sat at minus 0.05 in September. Its revenue index was at minus 0.01. Both are a touch below neutral, and both improved slightly on August. The report’s reading is that the market is softer than 2025 but not sliding, and that the wild swings of 2024 and early 2025 have given way to something more settled.
For group property owners, the important nuance is that these are market-wide averages dominated by smaller properties. A £140 ADR in September tells you almost nothing about a ten-bedroom house in Pembrokeshire. What it does tell you is the direction of travel, and the direction is clear: guests are paying more per night and booking slightly fewer of them.
Regional Holiday Rental Performance Across England, Scotland and Wales in Q3 2026
The national picture hides a wide regional spread. Six of the ten markets KeyData breaks out grew RevPAR year on year; England overall was flat, and the North East of England was the clear laggard.
Strongest RevPAR Growth: Mid Wales, South East England and Scotland
- Mid Wales was the only region to grow both occupancy and rate. Compared with Q3 2025, paid occupancy rose 1% to 48%, ADR rose 2% to £166, and RevPAR rose 3% to £80
- South East England held paid occupancy level with Q3 2025 at 46%, while ADR rose 3% to £191, carrying RevPAR up 3% to £88
- Scotland posted the strongest rate growth of any rental market, with ADR up 6% on Q3 2025 to £185. That more than covered a 3% fall in paid occupancy (to 51%) and lifted RevPAR 3% to £94
Steady Performers: Wales and South West England
- Wales as a whole: compared with Q3 2025, paid occupancy fell 2% to 55%, ADR rose 4% to £168, and RevPAR rose 2% to £92
- North Wales followed the same pattern: paid occupancy down 2% to 57% (joint highest in the report, level with North East England), ADR up 4% to £171 and RevPAR up 2% to £98
- South West England recorded the highest RevPAR of any rental market at £110, up 2% on Q3 2025, with ADR up 3% to £201 and paid occupancy down 1% to 55%
- Southern Scotland saw paid occupancy fall 2% to 51% and ADR rise 4% to £150 (still the lowest in the report), giving RevPAR growth of 1% to £76
Regions Under Pressure: North East England, North West England and Eastern Scotland
- North East England saw paid occupancy fall 7% on Q3 2025 to 57%, the steepest drop in the report. ADR rose 2% to £153, but RevPAR still fell 6% to £87
- North West England saw paid occupancy fall 5% to 55%, ADR rise 2% to £162, and RevPAR fall 2% to £88
- Eastern Scotland, which includes Edinburgh, saw paid occupancy fall 6% to 49% and RevPAR fall 3% to £103, despite ADR rising 3% to £212, the highest in the report
What the Regional Data Means for Large Group Houses
Two things stand out. First, the regions that did best were the ones where owners held their nerve on price. Scotland and the South East did not chase occupancy with discounts, and their revenue held up as a result. Worth noting that these are popular areas anyway.
Second, the regions that struggled are the ones most exposed to short domestic breaks from nearby cities, which is exactly the segment that trades down fastest when household budgets tighten.
Large group properties sit in a different position. A hen weekend or a three-generation family gathering is usually planned months out and split across many wallets, so the per-head cost of a £2,000 house for twelve is still well under a £200 hotel room. That does not make groups immune to a softer market, but it does make them less price-sensitive per person than the solo couple booking a two-night break.
It’s also worth keeping in mind that while the two-night break may be a luxury, people are less likely to skip the landmark events like big birthdays, hen parties, etc., as these may have been in the planning for years!
Length of Stay and Booking Windows: What They Signal for Group Bookings in Late 2026
The two behavioural measures in the report matter more for group owners than the headline occupancy figure, because they describe how guests are planning rather than simply how many turned up.
Average Length of Stay Is Holding Around Five Nights
KeyData puts the average UK stay in July 2026 at 5.3 nights, up from 5.2 in July 2025. August 2026 slipped to 5.2 nights from 5.3 a year earlier, and September held level year on year at 5.3. Looking forward, October 2026 bookings are pacing at 5.1 nights, level with October 2025, while November and December are both tracking 3% shorter than the same months last year: 4.6 nights against 4.7 for November, and 5.1 nights against 5.2 for December.
The report titles this section around guests favouring shorter stays, which is fair for the market as a whole but worth qualifying. A 3% dip on a five-night average is a difference of a few hours, not a shift from week-long holidays to weekend breaks. For large houses, where the natural unit is still a long weekend or a full week, we would read this as relatively stable rather than deteriorating. The December figure is the one to watch, given how much of a group property’s winter revenue sits in the festive fortnight. If you let over Christmas and New Year, our Christmas cottages collection and New Year party houses pages are where that demand lands on our site.
Booking Windows Are Lengthening Into Q4 2026
Summer lead times moved only a few days either way against 2025. July 2026 stays were booked an average of 98 days ahead (97 in July 2025), August 97 days (102) and September 105 days (106). The forward picture is more interesting. Stays already booked for October 2026 were made an average of 107 days out against 104 for October 2025, November 141 days against 138, and December 196 days against 193, each 2% to 3% longer than a year ago.
That December figure, over six months ahead, is the most group-shaped number in the whole report. It’s less likely someone books a two-night break in a one-bedroom flat 196 days in advance. Long lead times are the signature of parties that need to coordinate a dozen diaries, and they suggest the festive group market is organising itself earlier rather than later.
At GroupAccommodation.com we see guests booking those key Christmas and New Year dates well in advance – often over a year ahead, and sometimes two! We’re already seeing enquiries for festive dates in 2028, a full 26 months in advance.
Direct Bookings vs Airbnb and Booking.com: Who Brings the Revenue in 2026
This is the section of the report we would pin to the wall. KeyData tracks where UK check-ins come from and, separately, where the revenue comes from. The gap between those two numbers is the whole argument for owning your own channel.
Direct Bookings Still Lead, but Their Share Has Slipped Since 2024
Direct bookings accounted for 69% of UK guest check-ins in Q3 2024. That share fell to 62% in Q3 2025 and 57% in Q3 2026. Across the same three Q3 periods, Airbnb’s share of check-ins grew from 13% to 19% and Booking.com’s from 16% to 23%. Vrbo held at 1% throughout.
That is a real shift and it would be dishonest to pretend otherwise. The two big OTAs have taken twelve points of check-in share from direct channels in two years.
Direct Guests Generate 68% of Revenue From 57% of Check-Ins
Now look at the money. In Q3 2026, direct bookings produced 68% of UK short-term rental revenue, down from 79% in Q3 2024, but still eleven percentage points above their 57% share of check-ins. Airbnb’s 19% share of Q3 2026 check-ins delivered 15% of revenue. Booking.com’s 23% share of check-ins delivered just 15% of revenue.
Put plainly, direct bookings’ share of revenue is around 20% larger than their share of arrivals (68% against 57%), while Booking.com’s share of revenue is roughly a third smaller than its share of arrivals (15% against 23%). KeyData’s reading is that direct bookers stay longer, pay higher rates and book further ahead. Those are precisely the characteristics of a group booking.
Why This Matters More for Large Group Properties
The OTAs are winning volume in the segment where they are strongest: short stays in smaller properties, booked on a phone a few weeks out. The report itself notes that smaller properties are capturing a growing share of late demand as bookings compress towards arrival.
Large houses are a poor fit for that funnel. They carry high nightly rates that trigger sticker shock in a search listing, they need conversations about sleeping arrangements and catering, and the organiser is usually spending other people’s money and wants to speak to a human first. That is why the direct share among group properties has always run well ahead of the market average, and why owners who list with us keep telling me the OTA enquiries are the ones that fall over.
We wrote about this at length when Airbnb launched its direct booking links feature, and the conclusion stands: the industry predates Airbnb, experienced owners are returning to their direct roots, and newer owners are discovering that a commission-free booking is worth considerably more than a commissioned one. If you want the practical comparison, see the best Airbnb alternatives for big properties and direct bookings and skip the fees: the best direct booking platforms.
UK Hotels vs Holiday Rentals in Q3 2026: Rentals Held Up Better
KeyData also benchmarks UK hotels, and the comparison does the hotel sector no favours. Compared with Q3 2025, hotel calendar occupancy in England fell 11% in Q3 2026, while paid occupancy at English holiday rentals fell 3%. Both sectors raised ADR by 3%, to £174 for English hotels and £180 for English rentals. The occupancy gap meant English hotel RevPAR dropped 8% while English rental RevPAR was flat. The UK-wide hotel figures were almost identical: occupancy down 11%, ADR up 3% to £176 and RevPAR down 8%.
Welsh Hotels Had a Difficult Summer
The Welsh hotel figures are striking. Compared with Q3 2025, Welsh hotel calendar occupancy fell 27% in Q3 2026 to 46%, ADR slipped 1% to £120 and RevPAR dropped 28% to £55. Holiday rentals in Wales over the same period grew RevPAR 2% to £92, on an ADR of £168. In Scotland, hotels raised ADR 9% to £198 but still lost 2% of RevPAR, while Scottish rentals grew RevPAR 3%.
One caution: the hotel sample is measured on calendar occupancy, which counts owner and maintenance blocks, so it is not a like-for-like figure with paid occupancy on the rental side. The direction of the gap is still clear.
Where Groups Sit Between the Two
For group organisers weighing a block of hotel rooms against a single large house, the maths has moved further in favour of the house. Rental rates have risen at the same pace as hotel rates, so there is no relative price penalty, and the self-catering model absorbs the inflation in eating out that hotel-based groups cannot avoid. Ten rooms at £176 is £1,760 a night before anyone has had breakfast. That is more than most ten-bedroom houses on our site charge for the same night, kitchen included.
Q4 2026 Outlook for UK Holiday Rentals: Soft Autumn, Stronger December
As of 6 October, the final quarter looks like two different stories.
October and November 2026 Are Pacing Behind
- October 2026 paid occupancy is on the books at 33.6% against 35.6% for October 2025, down 6% (2 percentage points)
- November 2026 is at 12.6% against 13.4% for November 2025, also down 6% (0.8 percentage points)
- ADR is ahead in both months: £144 for October 2026 against £138 a year earlier (up 4%), and £145 for November 2026 against £141 (up 3%)
- RevPAR is pacing behind in both months: £48 for October 2026 against £49 (down 2%), and £18 for November 2026 against £19 (down 3%)
December 2026 Is Already Ahead of Last Year
- December 2026 paid occupancy is at 11.6% against 11.4% for December 2025, up 2%
- December 2026 ADR is £216 against £206 for December 2025, up 5%
- December 2026 RevPAR is pacing at £25 per available night against £23 for December 2025, up 6%
The December figures are small in absolute terms because most festive bookings for smaller properties have not been made yet. For large houses the opposite is true: the Christmas and New Year weeks are often the first to sell and the last to discount. The combination of a longer booking window, higher rate and higher occupancy for December is the single most encouraging signal in the report for anyone letting a big house in the Scottish Highlands, the Lake District or the Cotswolds.
The autumn gap is the one that needs managing. October and November are shoulder months where group demand is thinner and more occasion-led, built around birthdays, reunions and company away-days rather than holidays. If those weeks are sitting empty, the report’s advice is sound: protect rate where demand exists and act early where it does not, rather than discounting the whole calendar.
A Balanced View: What the KeyData Autumn 2026 Index Does and Does Not Tell Group Property Owners
We want to be straight about the limits of this report before anyone builds a pricing strategy on it.
What the Data Supports
- UK short-term rental demand is softer than 2025 but stable, with occupancy down low single digits and rates up by a similar margin
- Pricing discipline has protected revenue in most regions, and the regions that discounted hardest did not recover the lost occupancy
- Direct bookings remain the most valuable channel by a wide margin, delivering 68% of Q3 2026 revenue from 57% of Q3 2026 arrivals
- Lead times for December are long and lengthening, and December is the only Q4 month pacing ahead on every measure
- Holiday rentals outperformed hotels on occupancy in every UK nation, most dramatically in Wales
What the Data Does Not Show
- KeyData does not segment by property size or party size, so none of the figures above are specifically about group bookings. My reading of what they mean for large houses is interpretation, informed by what we see on our own platform, not something the report states
- The sample is drawn from professionally managed properties using property management software, which skews towards larger operators and away from single-property owners who manage their own bookings
- Paid occupancy of around 50% in summer will look low to anyone running a well-marketed group house, where peak-season occupancy is routinely much higher. The averages are pulled down by the long tail of smaller urban listings
- Direct bookings have lost share for three consecutive years. The revenue premium is real, but so is the trend, and it would be complacent to assume large properties are exempt
Our Take for Owners of Large Group Houses
The report describes a market where the easy growth of 2022 to 2024 has gone and what remains is a contest over rate rather than volume. That environment favours properties with something distinctive to sell, a reason for guests to plan ahead, and a channel that lets them book without a commission inflating the headline price. A 15-20% OTA mark-up on a high end property is going to hit budgets hard in the current economy.
Large group houses have all three. The risk is not that group demand disappears. It is that owners respond to a soft October by discounting December, or by handing the festive weeks to an OTA that will take 15% and deliver a guest who stays a night less. The data says hold your rate, publish your winter pricing early, and make sure the organiser can find you directly.
List Your Large Holiday House Commission-Free With GroupAccommodation.com
If you own a property sleeping eight or more and want the December enquiries to come to you rather than through a commissioned marketplace, advertise your large holiday rental with GroupAccommodation.com. We have been connecting group organisers directly with owners since 2003, with no booking commission and no middleman between you and your guests.
Data in this article is drawn from the KeyData U.K. KeyData Index, Autumn 2026: Industry Performance Analysis, Report for Property Managers, with all figures as of 6 October 2026. Figures have been paraphrased and rounded; see the original report at keydata.co for full methodology. Observations about group bookings specifically reflect GroupAccommodation.com’s own platform experience and the author’s interpretation rather than KeyData findings.
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